# Source citations

Every published human baseline in `results.json` traces back to one of the following papers. Pull them directly and check our numbers.

## Primary sources

**Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974).** *Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.* Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.
[https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124)

**Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981).** *The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.* Science, 211(4481), 453–458.
[https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.7455683](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.7455683)

**Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. H. (1990).** *Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem.* Journal of Political Economy, 98(6), 1325–1348.
[https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/261737](https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/261737)

**Iyengar, S. S., & Lepper, M. R. (2000).** *When Choice Is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing?* Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79(6), 995–1006.
[https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.79.6.995](https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.79.6.995)

**Johnson, E. J., & Goldstein, D. G. (2003).** *Do Defaults Save Lives?* Science, 302(5649), 1338–1339.
[https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1091721](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1091721)

**Ariely, D. (2008).** *Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions.* HarperCollins.
The Economist subscription decoy is on p. 12. Power of Free (penny vs free) is in Chapter 3.

## Methodological context (LLM-based persona research)

**Argyle, L. P., Busby, E. C., Fulda, N., et al. (2023).** *Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples.* Political Analysis.
[https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.06899](https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.06899)

**Horton, J. J. (2023).** *Large Language Models as Simulated Economic Agents.* NBER Working Paper 31122.
[https://www.nber.org/papers/w31122](https://www.nber.org/papers/w31122)

**Hewitt, L., Ashokkumar, A., Ghezae, I., & Willer, R. (2024).** *Predicting Results of Social Science Experiments Using Large Language Models.* Stanford AI for Policy & Behavior.
[https://ai4pb.stanford.edu/projects/predicting-results-of-social-science-experiments-using-large-language-models](https://ai4pb.stanford.edu/projects/predicting-results-of-social-science-experiments-using-large-language-models)

**Kolluri, R., Wu, S., Park, J. S., & Bernstein, M. S. (2025).** *Finetuning LLMs for Human Behavior Prediction.* EMNLP.
[https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.05830](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.05830)